Part 2 on real vs. fake innovation and consumer demand: how to tell the difference, and how to get real
Last week we covered shelf-stuffing and flavor fluffing. Now let's look at what real innovation is made of, authentic consumer demand, and having the guts to say "no."
Last week I wrote about the the “fake innovation” that food and beverage companies tend to lean on, and how they duck the hard work of developing actually innovative products.
Then there are the geniuses who make giant innovative leaps without the rigor the rest of us mortals require to get there. But they’re actually “doing the work.” They just do it intuitively—and good on them.
How did Steve Jobs know that people wanted the iPhone?
Well, he didn’t, exactly.
But he did know who his consumers were, what they aspired to, and what they aspired to be (e.g., artists, designers, writers, ad folks.) He knew where technology was headed, and what to build the Apple brand around.
He had the creative vision to connect emerging tech and tastes to creative people’s wants and needs and then innovate a product that would merge those wants and needs—oh, and three product categories into one brilliant new one while he was at it: the smart phone.
The icing on the cake? His marketing and advertising brilliance.
Yes, there is no dispute: He’s the GOAT.
This is the difference between what packaged goods companies often call “innovation” (Prego pasta sauce flavor #32?) and true, breakthrough innovation based on deep consumer understanding, category vision, and the informed leaps in creativity that can drive authentic consumer demand.
I’m not Jobs so I have to tackle this with research, SWOTs, competitive analysis, grinding package design, ongoing creative optimization, etc., to get 1/10 of the way to where Jobs got, but I’m fine with that.
China’s top-down demand engine runs out of gas
The Chinese government has been learning a painful lesson: the difference between a top-down attempt to “force demand” and actually helping consumers live better lives by giving them access to what they actually want and need to buy.
China thought they could goose their economy by building apartment buildings few people wanted or could afford. That bombed. (You know you’re in trouble when the only follow-on jobs developers create are dynamite detonators.)
Now they’re stimulating consumption from the bottom up. China invested $20B last year subsidizing sales of cars and washing machines last year, and according to Reuters, they’re doubling down with $41B of hard-good subsidies this year “to include a broader range of products, such as smartphones and electric vehicles.”
By the way, we ALSO subsidize purchases here with help from both the government and marketers—from the USDA’s milk subsidies to discount grocery coupons. It’s how we built the greatest consumer-led economy in the world.
Innovation is the lifeblood of growth—but are you willing to kill your babies?
A few years ago, I led two global research and strategy projects for Herman Miller, the high-end furniture designer and manufacturer. Tara Leonard, another friend and client from my Unilever days, brought me in with my research partners from Whitman Insight Strategies to evaluate an innovative new chair concept the company was excited about.
We developed three detailed, differentiated product narratives and brand stories, then did extensive global research to gain insights into the chair’s potential buyers and their interest in the product.
Did consumers vote YES or NO to the new chair?
The vote was a definitive NO. And to Tara’s and Herman Miller’s credit, they had the humility to listen to the consumer and kill the product.
Many dollars saved; many bullets dodged.
We were then given another chair idea to evaluate.
This time, the vote was a resounding YES
A year later, the Zeph chair was launched successfully in 2022, and the product line was expanded in 2024.
It’s the shortcuts that’ll kill you.
Let’s be clear: Unless you’re Steve Jobs, there ARE no shortcuts when developing new products.
Manufacturers and marketers need to conduct hard-nosed competitive analyses and honest SWOTs. They need to listen without fear or favor to their customers and prospects, and make sure the potential product answers a true need, or stimulates a market breakthrough, or both, if you’re very lucky.
Then makers and marketers have to price it right, launch it right, and be confident they can actually make a sustainable profit with it.
If you can’t hit every one of those marks, have the humility to kill it in the crib.
Classic testing methodologies can lead to epic fails
Global innovation testing models (I’m talking to you, “classic BASES” fans) have led many a marketer down a super-long, insanely expensive, and failing path. I’ve been amazed when companies will spend fortunes on new product development, then fail to invest and innovate the evaluation of a product’s market potential by leaning on “historical norms” and creaky research techniques.
“Innovation” isn’t just about the product—it should include the entire marketing value chain, from evaluating its true potential to marketing it brilliantly and efficiently.
And by the way don’t take AI’s word for anything along the way.
Finally, if you create a killer rocket, don’t skimp on the rocket fuel
Maybe the saddest tragedy in new product dramas is getting cheap with the launch budget of a potential winner, hobbling its chance for lift-off. (What my brilliant mother-in-law called “choking on the tail.”)
No one will beat a path to your product’s door if they’re never heard of it.
If you can’t make a full commitment to put your innovation in front of the right people, at the right time, with the right brand story, for as long as it takes to achieve lift-off and, most importantly, to achieve a sustained orbit, maybe wait until you can fill the tank with the high-quality fuel to take you the distance.
Or maybe just blow it up on the launch pad…that might save you a lot of money.
Got launch stories? Successes and failures?
I’d love to share them with my readers—let’s talk.
Notes & Sources
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-stimulus-scheme-lifted-2024-consumption-growth-by-1-pct-point-2025-01-24/#:~:text=Sales%20of%20cars%2C%20home%20appliances,Sheng%20told%20a%20news%20conference.
https://www.hermanmiller.com/products/seating/office-chairs/zeph-chair/